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Game Lab / Strategy study

Historical replay / 16 October 2026

Ten strategies.
The same recorded outcomes.

Can changing the stake improve a losing sample? We ran ten defined rules against 699 accepted demo outcomes, then explored 108,035 nearby settings after an initial expanded search. Compare the profitable historical patterns, the less fragile fit and the risk behind the results.

Local parameter search / 108,035 combinations

Profitable patterns found in the historical data.

We explored the neighbourhood of the earlier 2/24-credit rule: base stakes 1–3 in 0.25 increments; windows 14–30 spins; return thresholds 15–35% in 0.5 percentage-point increments; boost multipliers 8–20 in 0.5 increments. The cap remained 32 credits. Equivalent combinations with the same effective high stake, base, window and threshold were counted once.

Of 108,035 combinations, 60,731 completed all 699 rows and 56,090 ended in profit. This search was deliberately concentrated around a rule already found profitable on these data; that proportion is not a probability of winning.

The shared pattern: two stakes, triggered by recent recorded return.

Pay the ordinary stake on every spin. Once a full window is available, calculate the average of the previous outcomes’ payout ÷ source stake. If it is strictly below the threshold, use the higher stake on the next spin; otherwise use the ordinary stake. All observation spins are paid. The bank carries across recorded gaps, while the rule memory clears because intervening outcomes are unknown.

VariantNormal / high stakeWindow / thresholdNet profitMax. drawdownMinimum bankReplay
Original fitted rule2,00 / 24,0020 / 25.0%+1 886,50851,50161,00
Highest profit in the local grid1,50 / 29,2520 / 25.5%+2 577,37981,7048,77
Drawdown at most 5001,50 / 30,0030 / 18.0%+1 882,85482,22697,57
Drawdown at most 3001,00 / 18,0030 / 18.0%+1 118,42293,25814,39
Four historical fits compare net profit with maximum drawdown; the highest-profit fit also has the largest drawdown
How to read this: each row is one setting. Both bars use the same credit scale. Longer green means more net historical profit; shorter red means a smaller fall from a previous bank peak. Drawdown is not final loss and is not subtracted again from profit. All four fits use the same initial bank and recorded rows.

What happened to neighbouring settings?

Each check changes one parameter, leaving the others fixed. The tests below reuse the same history. Some neighbours sit just outside the main grid; they are sensitivity probes, not additional entries in the 108,035-grid count. A positive neighbour does not necessarily stay within the selected drawdown limit.

Changed parameterOriginal → testedCompleted all spins?Net profitMax. drawdown
Base stake1 → 0.75Yes+838,95219,94
Base stake1 → 1.25Yes+1 398,09366,55
Stake multiplier18 → 17.5Yes+1 084,24286,19
Stake multiplier18 → 18.5Yes+1 152,63300,31
Window length30 → 29Yes+653,05314,49
Window length30 → 31Yes+848,55351,23
Return threshold18.0% → 17.5%Yes+755,05293,25
Return threshold18.0% → 18.5%Yes+1 016,42293,25

Data, assumptions and reproduction.

Credits are hypothetical, not ZAR or winnings from new demo spins. The 699-row source sample, missing-outcome limitations and linear payout-scaling assumption are unchanged. Each of the four selections passed an independent reconstruction of stake decisions and payouts using integer arithmetic. Repeated fitting increases selection bias; none of these results establishes that a low recent return makes the next spin more likely to win.

Save the results JSON, original outcomes, replay engine and reproduction script together. Run node reproduce-neighbourhood.mjs to recompute the whole grid with Node.js 18 or later, without packages or network access.

01 / Shared starting conditions

Ten rules, eight separate sessions.

Each recorded session receives a fresh hypothetical 1,000-credit bank. Base stake: 4 credits; stake cap: 64. The percentage rule instead starts at 1% of the bank. Limits are −100 or +100 credits; the blank-streak threshold is three and the interval threshold is five. These are ten selected, explicitly defined rules, not a measured popularity ranking.

A payout below the stake is a net loss. Every rule pays for every inspected spin, including the blank spins used by the two-level rule. Changing a stake does not change the recorded payout multiplier in this mathematical model.

All ten baseline strategy replays finish with negative aggregate net results
How to read this: the vertical list names the strategies. A red bar extending left of zero is a loss; longer means more credits lost. These are sums across separate sessions, not a continuous balance. A smaller loss can simply mean the rule stopped sooner. Check bets and stops below.
RuleNet creditsBets / 699Complete sessions / 8Worst session drawdown
Fixed stake-176,006998419,50
Percentage of bank-424,036998665,28
Capped Martingale-205,50552152,00
D’Alembert-440,501382572,00
Paroli-107,006998460,50
Fibonacci-527,50652142,00
1–3–2–6 progression-68,006998481,50
Two-level blank streak-173,506998762,00
Session loss/profit limits-61,001894103,50
Interval doubling-168,003866751,00

Drawdown is the largest fall from a previous bank peak within any one replayed session. It is not the final loss, and the eight drawdowns are not added together.

01

Fixed stake

Bet the same amount on every recorded spin.

-176,00 credits from 699 bets. Stops: completed: 8.

02

Percentage of bank

Bet a percentage of the current bank, rounded down to cents, with a minimum of one cent. Stop if that stake exceeds the cap.

-424,03 credits from 699 bets. Stops: completed: 8.

03

Capped Martingale

Double after a net loss. Reset after a payout covers the stake. A partial payout is still a loss; doubling does not guarantee recovery.

-205,50 credits from 55 bets. Stops: completed: 2; stake cap: 6.

04

D’Alembert

Add one base unit after a net loss; subtract one after a stake-covering payout, down to one unit.

-440,50 credits from 138 bets. Stops: completed: 2; stake cap: 6.

05

Paroli

Double after a net profit, for up to three consecutive profitable spins. A loss, break-even or third profit resets to base.

-107,00 credits from 699 bets. Stops: completed: 8.

06

Fibonacci

Use units 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8… after net losses; move back two positions after a stake-covering payout.

-527,50 credits from 65 bets. Stops: completed: 2; stake cap: 6.

07

1–3–2–6 progression

After consecutive net profits, stake 1, 3, 2 and 6 base units. A loss, break-even or completed cycle resets it.

-68,00 credits from 699 bets. Stops: completed: 8.

08

Two-level blank streak

Pay the base stake on every spin. After a chosen number of consecutive zero-payout spins, bet twice the base until a payout appears. All observation spins cost money; the next result is never known in advance.

-173,50 credits from 699 bets. Stops: completed: 8.

09

Session loss/profit limits

Use fixed stakes and stop after reaching a chosen loss limit or profit target. Thresholds are checked after settlement and may be overshot.

-61,00 credits from 189 bets. Stops: completed: 4; loss limit: 2; profit target: 2.

10

Interval doubling

Double after a chosen number of bets without a stake-covering payout; reset when a payout covers the stake. Stop before exceeding the cap.

-168,00 credits from 386 bets. Stops: completed: 6; stake cap: 2.

03 / Why a short result can mislead

Earlier rows select; later rows replay.

Within each of the eight sessions, the first 60% of rows select settings; the remaining rows replay those settings with a new 1,000-credit bank. That gives 418 early and 281 later rows. The dataset was already known, so this is a retrospective sensitivity check, not independent validation. Short sessions yield very small splits.

Selection prefers a configuration completing all early slices. If none does, the largest early net is shown as an incomplete selection. Always read completed slices and bets beside profit: stopping after a lucky payout can make a short run look impressive.

RuleEarly-selected settingsEarly net / bets / completed slicesLater net / bets / completed slices
Fixed stakeBase 1; cap 32-104,21 / 418 / 8 of 8+60,27 / 281 / 8 of 8
Percentage of bank0.25% of bank; cap 32-247,77 / 418 / 8 of 8+144,15 / 281 / 8 of 8
Capped MartingaleBase 16; cap 64 · Incomplete selection+714,00 / 30 / 1 of 8+1 424,00 / 31 / 2 of 8
D’AlembertBase 16; cap 64 · Incomplete selection+48,00 / 37 / 2 of 8+728,00 / 35 / 2 of 8
ParoliBase 1; cap 32-84,46 / 418 / 8 of 8+59,77 / 281 / 8 of 8
FibonacciBase 16; cap 32 · Incomplete selection+286,00 / 30 / 1 of 8+616,00 / 31 / 2 of 8
1–3–2–6 progressionBase 1; cap 32-54,71 / 418 / 8 of 8+41,77 / 281 / 8 of 8
Two-level blank streakBase 1; cap 32; double after 8 blanks-114,72 / 418 / 8 of 8+21,02 / 281 / 8 of 8
Session loss/profit limitsBase 1; cap 32; loss limit 100; profit target 100-104,21 / 418 / 8 of 8+60,27 / 281 / 8 of 8
Interval doublingBase 1; cap 64; interval 5+1 183,52 / 418 / 8 of 8-663,37 / 265 / 7 of 8

The interval-doubling selection went from +1,183.52 credits in the early slices to −663.37 in later slices. Splitting and restarting a progression changes the path, so these figures must not be added to claim a continuous full-sample profit.

04 / Try the arithmetic

Your settings. One recorded session.

This calculator replays existing payout multiples; it does not launch the game, place bets or predict outcomes. Choose a session to keep its real boundaries intact. Amounts are hypothetical credits, not ZAR or verified live stake options.

Percentage, streak, interval and stop-limit inputs apply only to their named rules. “Full-sample best” means the least-loss complete replay in this grid, not a recommended strategy. Loading it preserves your chosen starting bank; changing that bank changes the result.

Choose a rule and session, then run the replay.

Hypothetical bank across the selected recorded session00Recorded row in this session →

The line shows hypothetical bank credits from left to right. Top label: the chart maximum; bottom labels: recorded row positions. An early endpoint means a cap, balance or session limit stopped the replay.

05 / Reproducible research

What we ran, and what we did not.

Each session starts a fresh hypothetical 1,000-credit bank and fresh progression state. Aggregate net is the sum of eight independent replays, not one uninterrupted balance. Recorded payout/stake multiples are scaled linearly to hypothetical stakes; actual stake-dependent payouts and denominations have not been tested. No new spins were collected. Partial sample: 699 accepted, 27 excluded after cutoff; unresolved requests and mixed transport are documented in Game Lab.

Source observations were collected on 13 October 2026: 530 through the ordinary interface and 169 through sequential public-demo requests. The original stake was 4 demo credits. The observed return was 2,620 / 2,796 = 93.71%; this is not theoretical RTP. No new live spins were collected for this strategy comparison.

Each payout is scaled by its recorded payout-to-stake ratio, then rounded half-up to the nearest cent. The model does not establish that every fractional stake is available or that changing coin value and bet level preserves every paytable award. Blank-streak calculations pay for their observation spins. Progressions reset at recorded session boundaries. A complete replay must inspect every row in every session; the eight fresh banks represent 8,000 hypothetical credits in total.

Net profit = total returned minus total staked. Drawdown = largest fall from an earlier bank peak. Partial payouts still count as losses for loss-based progressions; Paroli and 1–3–2–6 advance only on net profits. A stake exceeding the cap or bank is never placed. No automatic reset hides a failed session.

Read the original collection method and missing outcomes →

Save the JSON outcomes, results, search CSV, engine and reproduction script in one folder. Run node reproduce-strategies.mjs using Node.js 18 or later; no packages or network access are required. The script reproduces every baseline, all 660 grid configurations and the published full-sample selections, not the original random outcomes.

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